Entering the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030), China's industrial coating industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by green and low-carbon as its core momentum. Under the macro guidance of building a modern industrial system, the industry is explicitly required to evolve toward high-end, intelligent, and green development, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has further proposed exploring the creation of a batch of zero-carbon factories and zero-carbon industrial parks. For industrial coatings, "whether it is eco-friendly" is no longer a multiple-choice question, but the bottom line for market access.
I. Policy Rigidity: Stricter VOC Limits
The most direct impact on the industry comes from the mandatory national standard "Limit of Harmful Substances in Coatings Part 2: Industrial Coatings" (GB30981.2-2025), which was released on May 30, 2025 and officially implemented on June 1, 2026. The standard integrates multiple previous standards, significantly tightens VOC limit requirements and expands the scope of control, marking the entry of industrial painting into a stricter regulatory stage. This means that enterprises that previously relied on solvent-based products to maintain cost advantages must complete production line switching within the deadline.
At the same time, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has launched the drafting of the "Action Plan for Continuous Improvement of Air Quality (2026–2035)", which explicitly proposes strict control of new production capacity of high-VOCs coatings, and achieving comprehensive substitution of low (solvent-free) VOCs raw and auxiliary materials across multiple industries by 2030. From containers, marine, wood, engineering machinery to steel structures, mandatory low-VOCs content coating substitution policies for segmented industries have been intensively introduced; "oil-to-water" and "paint-to-powder" have shifted from industry advocacy to an insurmountable regulatory red line; multiple key regions have further included industrial painting processes in the key monitoring list.
II. Four Pillars: Water-based, High-solid, Powder, UV
Market data confirms this main trend. In 2025, China's industrial paint market size was about 115 billion yuan, and is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of over 6% in 2026; among them, the combined share of eco-friendly products such as water-based, powder, high-solid and solvent-free is expected to exceed 55% for the first time in 2026. Sharper growth comes from the new energy side—demand for specialty coatings for photovoltaics, wind turbine blades and energy storage facilities achieved rapid growth of over 25% in 2025.
The four technology routes each have their own positions:
– Water-based industrial coating: Advances in resin synthesis and high-performance additives have significantly improved weather resistance and anti-corrosion shortcomings, rapidly expanding from engineering machinery primer to rail transit, automotive parts, and steel structure anti-corrosion; in 2025, the domestic water-based coating market size exceeded 150 billion yuan with a share over 50%, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 18% over the next decade. – High-solid coating: While maintaining excellent protective performance, it effectively reduces solvent usage and is the smoothest transition solution for existing production lines. – Powder coating: 100% solid, zero VOC, recyclable; after the implementation of low-temperature curing technology, energy consumption is reduced by over 30%, expanding from home appliances and building materials to automotive, pipelines and other industrial fields; in 2026, the domestic market size is about 65 billion yuan, with new energy battery packs and energy storage equipment becoming new growth drivers. – Radiation-curable (UV/EB) coating: Fast curing speed and high efficiency, with significant advantages in electronics and furniture fields, and emerging in industrial painting.
III. From "Whether Eco-friendly" to "How to Be More Efficient and Low-carbon"
At the node of the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the industry proposition has shifted from "whether eco-friendly" to "how to be more efficient, healthier, lower-carbon, and smarter". Technological innovation is advancing from both ends:
The first is source emission reduction. Frontier processes such as supercritical carbon dioxide green spraying bring revolutionary changes to industrial painting; patent layouts for functional additives such as graphene modification and self-healing materials are active, with about 65% of industrial paint patent applications concentrated on water-based and functional additives. Health functionalization has also spilled over from home decoration to the industrial side, with "additive-free" and "antibacterial and anti-mold" becoming higher-standard eco-friendly demands.
The second is smart painting. AI formula design shortens the new product cycle from 18 months to 6 months; after the popularization of enclosed clean production lines, VOC emissions are reduced by over 90%; digital twin and intelligent color matching greatly improve batch consistency. As green barriers such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) emerge, product carbon footprint accounting is profoundly affecting enterprises' raw material selection and production processes from the supply chain level, and export enterprises are accelerating the building of global supply chains and carbon management systems.
Under the "dual carbon" goals, the carbon footprint of the coating itself is also taken into account. Bio-based resins, renewable raw material substitution and water-based development proceed in parallel, enabling industrial coatings to move from "end-of-pipe emission reduction" to "full-life-cycle low-carbon", and enterprises begin to disclose carbon emission data per unit coating in product specifications, so green competition moves earlier to the raw material end.
IV. Kexin's Green Product Matrix
As an industrial coating enterprise, Kexin New Materials (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. has a clear transformation path: using water-based industrial coating to meet the "oil-to-water" needs of engineering machinery, steel structures and automotive parts; using nano coating technology to enhance composite functions such as thermal conductivity, insulation and self-cleaning, reducing coating passes and full-life-cycle emissions; and continuously reserving in the directions of high-solid and powder to match the green procurement standards of downstream customers. As guided policies on carbon footprint accounting emerge, writing "lower VOC, longer life, less material" into every formula is the real competitiveness to survive the cycle—this is also the realistic choice for small and medium coating enterprises to avoid homogeneous price wars and build moats in segmented scenarios.
V. Transformation Paths and Risks for Small and Medium Coating Enterprises
Green transformation is not the patent of large enterprises, but a watershed for small and medium ones. There are three realistic paths: the first is "deepen a single point", building resin and process barriers in a certain segment (such as engineering machinery water-based primer, container powder) to avoid full-category attrition wars; the second is "function stacking", introducing composite functions such as thermal conductivity, insulation, and antibacterial on a water-based base to offset price pressure with added value; the third is "bind large customers", doing customization that fits downstream green procurement standards, and exchanging stable delivery for customer stickiness.
Risks are also clear. There are still products on the market that only meet the bottom line of national standards but package themselves as "pseudo eco-friendly" with marketing rhetoric; such homogeneous competition both overdraws industry trust and pushes price wars to the bottom. The real moat comes from core resin synthesis and formula iteration capabilities—being able to lower VOC, raise life and function, and keep costs controllable is the confidence to sustain profitability above the green threshold. Regionally, water-based penetration and mandatory low-VOC policy promotion are faster in East and South China, and enterprises' capacity and solution layouts need to be in sync.
At the same time, downstream leaders in complete vehicles, wind power and energy storage have incorporated suppliers' green qualifications and carbon data into access; coating enterprises' green transformation is no longer just a compliance action, but a ticket to enter the core supply chain; whether traceable carbon footprint and low-VOC measured reports can be issued is becoming a hard threshold for order screening.
VI. Conclusion
Green and low-carbon is not a cost burden for the coating industry, but a lever to reshape the competitive landscape. When the three forces of policy rigidity, technology maturity and downstream green procurement converge, "eco-friendly compliance" is only an admission ticket, and "lower VOC, longer life, less material, smarter" is the stamina for the long run. For enterprises like Kexin New Materials that are based on industrial coatings, aligning every formula iteration with this main axis can turn green into real productivity and moat within a 15-year or even longer industry window.
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Further Reading
- Which Working Conditions Should Still Use Oil-based Paint? Boundaries and Exceptions of Water-based Substitution
- Water-based Paint Construction Equipment and Tools: Spray Gun Selection, Pipeline Cleaning and Wastewater Treatment
- Water-based Paint Implementation in Wood Door/Cabinet/Custom Furniture Factories: Takt, Yield and Cost
- Industrial Paint VOC Regulations and Limits: GB 30981, EU 2004/42/EC, CARB
- Solvent-free and Ultra-high Solid Epoxy: VOC Compliance and One-coat Film Formation
- Nano Coating Overview: Nanoparticles, Mechanism of Action and Definition Boundaries